jd
JIM MINY
Posts: 53
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Post by jd on Mar 20, 2023 5:18:44 GMT
Hello OG, glad that things are at least "ok" :)
So I checked the result of the actual tourney vs my sim and... well it's not good overall. My longshots didn't win and the longshots that did win I didn't have, in three of the four regions I am now "drawing dead" as there is no more possible points for me to draw.
That fourth region though, the midwest one... I got all four of its teams in the sweet 16 correct. In fact if one combines the first and second rounds Fire Pro picked 10 of the 12 results correctly there. In contrast it only got 17 picks right across the other three regions combined across the same two rounds (believe out of 36 games) so... I guess one out of four ain't great but is at least something?
Anyways the only thing that can get me anything close to a respectable result is Xavier making a run to the finals, so hopefully they manage to do it for Mutoh.
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Post by OrochiGeese on Mar 23, 2023 6:19:21 GMT
Hello OG, glad that things are at least "ok" :) My version of March Madness is seeing what happens on significantly less sleep than is recommended ðĪŠ So I checked the result of the actual tourney vs my sim and... well it's not good overall. My longshots didn't win and the longshots that did win I didn't have, in three of the four regions I am now "drawing dead" as there is no more possible points for me to draw. From what I've heard, this year's tournament had so many longshots win which really stumped a lot of people. Small town schools seemed to pull it together and go for broke! That fourth region though, the midwest one... I got all four of its teams in the sweet 16 correct. In fact if one combines the first and second rounds Fire Pro picked 10 of the 12 results correctly there. In contrast it only got 17 picks right across the other three regions combined across the same two rounds (believe out of 36 games) so... I guess one out of four ain't great but is at least something? Anyways the only thing that can get me anything close to a respectable result is Xavier making a run to the finals, so hopefully they manage to do it for Mutoh. #AllThingsForMutoh ð Please update upon your progress! ð |
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jd
JIM MINY
Posts: 53
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Post by jd on Mar 27, 2023 3:42:51 GMT
Well the Final Four is set and Xavier didn't make it, heck they didn't even make the Elite 8 so... yeah, got wrecked this year. I'm listed as in the 12.6 percentile and I assume that'll stay the same after the Final Four (I can't see anyone who has less points than me having any teams left either) so really no silver linings anywhere.
I will take a moment to see exactly where I got each region wrong.
-In the South region #5 seed SDSU/Randy Orton won while I had them going out in the very first round. That said the team that I had beating them (#12 Charleston/Joe Doerring) I had going on to win the whole thing so in a way FPW picked the right match-up the winner was gonna come from?
-In the East I did get #9 FAU/Dynamite kid make the Sweet 16, which required them getting by that region's 1 seed which few would have. They went out to #12 Oral Roberts/Braun Strowman who won my region but IRL went out in the first round.
-Midwest had #5 Miami/Lyger make the Sweet 16 as well. I had them losing to #1 seed Houston/Inoki while in real life they pulled off the upset in the same matchup. #3 Xavier/Mutoh won my region but went out in the Sweet 16 IRL.
-In the west I had #1 seed Kansas/Kawada win the whole region, they went out in the second round but TBF that bit a whole lot of people. #4 UConn/ric Flair went out in my sim's first round; they actually won the region and are probably the favorite to win the whole thing.
So it wasn't a straight "picked everything wrong immediately" but really only a couple brief teases of long-term success. I had two 12s, a 3 and a 1 make my final four while in reality it was a 9, two 5s and a 4. Now I doubt anyone had this Final Four as... well no top three seeds making it is basically unheard of (no 1s made it to the Elite 8!) so this would have been my year if we hit anything, but alas it was not to be.
To close I will note that when I first picked the teams I did feel like the point spread I went with wasn't right (I have to do math to real stats to make them convert to a range of edit point totals), but really I think there just wasn't a lot of separation between many of these teams. What happened in real life seems like a bit of an edge case but not unreasonable, so it isn't a huge surprise that with this bunch Fire Pro basically just came up with random noise.
But as I feel like these always end... maybe next year~
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Post by OrochiGeese on Mar 30, 2023 22:12:58 GMT
So it wasn't a straight "picked everything wrong immediately" but really only a couple brief teases of long-term success. I had two 12s, a 3 and a 1 make my final four while in reality it was a 9, two 5s and a 4. Now I doubt anyone had this Final Four as... well no top three seeds making it is basically unheard of (no 1s made it to the Elite 8!) so this would have been my year if we hit anything, but alas it was not to be. To close I will note that when I first picked the teams I did feel like the point spread I went with wasn't right (I have to do math to real stats to make them convert to a range of edit point totals), but really I think there just wasn't a lot of separation between many of these teams. What happened in real life seems like a bit of an edge case but not unreasonable, so it isn't a huge surprise that with this bunch Fire Pro basically just came up with random noise. But as I feel like these always end... maybe next year~ Yeah, it sounds like things could have gone very differently for you in a believable way. The real life RNG just didn't go your way this year but hopefully next time!! If you're not back around for a while (and also if you are!), I hope you have an enjoyable year ð |
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jd
JIM MINY
Posts: 53
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Post by jd on Mar 21, 2024 17:18:23 GMT
So... gonna just cut straight to the chase, didn't do one of these this year. Literally no one I know does any bracket picking stuff anymore which kinda takes too much of the fun out of it given the effort it requires.
I just wanted to drop in and say it rather than just have it mysteriously not pop up and cause the few who remember this to worry about me, I'm fine and I hope you are as well :)
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Post by Senator Phillips on Mar 22, 2024 0:50:56 GMT
Glad to hear you're doing alright!
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jd
JIM MINY
Posts: 53
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Post by jd on Apr 9, 2024 18:11:19 GMT
To put an odd capper on this, when I wasn't sure about doing one of these this year I filled out a bracket more or less randomly very quickly just to have one in the system in case I needed it. Anyways I got an email today saying "check how you did" and... I finished in the 74.6 percentile and picked the national champ correctly.
Needless to say over all the years I did this the Fire Pro way things never went that well, kind of a whoopie cushion way to go out >_>
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